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Quantitative Skills in Economics

Percentages and percentage changes in economic data

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Overview

Percentage changes, percentage points, and the difference between a fall in a rate and a fall in the level it measures.

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How is a rate of inflation read off a price index, and why is a percentage point not a percentage?

Questions from this subtopic

Each one with the model answer underneath.

  1. 1

    A country's consumer price index rises from 108.5 to 114.2 over a year. What is the rate of inflation, and what has happened to the price level?

    Model answer

    The index rose by 114.2 - 108.5 = 5.7 points. As a percentage of the starting value, 5.7 divided by 108.5 multiplied by 100 is 5.25 per cent, so inflation over the year is about 5.3 per cent. The general price level is 5.25 per cent higher than a year ago, and since the index is above 100 it is also above the level of the base year. The percentage change must be taken against 108.5, not against the base of 100.

  2. 2

    Inflation rises from 2% to 3%. Why is this a rise of one percentage point rather than a rise of one per cent, and what is the proportional rise in the rate?

    Model answer

    Both figures are already percentages, so their arithmetic difference is expressed in percentage points: 3 - 2 = 1 percentage point. Describing it as a rise of one per cent would mean one per cent of the rate itself, taking inflation from 2 per cent to 2.02 per cent, which is not what happened. Measured proportionally, the rate has risen by 1 divided by 2, which is 50 per cent. Percentage points measure the gap between two percentages; percentage change measures how much bigger one is than the other.

  3. 3

    The unemployment rate rises from 4.2% to 5.1%. Express the change in percentage points and as a percentage change in the rate, and say which better describes the labour market.

    Model answer

    In percentage points the rise is 5.1 - 4.2 = 0.9 percentage points. As a proportion of the original rate it is 0.9 divided by 4.2 multiplied by 100, which is 21.4 per cent. Percentage points are usually the clearer description, because the rate itself is a share of the labour force and the reader wants to know how much that share has changed. The 21.4 per cent figure describes how much larger the rate is proportionally and can make a modest change sound dramatic.

  4. 4

    Inflation falls from 6.2% one year to 2.8% the next. What has happened to the price level, and how much higher are prices at the end of the two years than at the start?

    Model answer

    Prices are still rising; only the pace has slowed. This is disinflation, not deflation. Taking the starting price level as 100, after the first year it is 106.2 and after the second it is 106.2 multiplied by 1.028, which is 109.17. Prices are therefore about 9.2 per cent higher than at the start of the two years. The price level falls only when the inflation rate is negative, and a falling inflation rate means nothing of the kind.

  5. 5

    A price index falls from 105.0 to 104.2. What is the rate of inflation, and why is this different from inflation merely slowing?

    Model answer

    The change is 104.2 - 105.0 = -0.8 points, and -0.8 divided by 105.0 multiplied by 100 is -0.76 per cent. Negative inflation means the average price level has actually fallen, which is deflation. This differs from disinflation because buyers may now postpone purchases in the expectation of lower prices, weakening demand, and because the real value of debts rises when prices fall. When inflation merely slows, prices are still climbing and neither of those effects operates.

  6. 6

    Real gross domestic product grows by 2.5% in each of three successive years. What is the total growth over the three years, and why is the answer not 7.5%?

    Model answer

    Growth compounds, so the total factor is 1.025 multiplied by itself three times, which is 1.0769. Output is therefore 7.69 per cent higher after three years. Adding the rates gives 7.5 per cent, which is too low because each year's growth applies to a base that already includes the previous years' growth. The error is small at low rates over short periods and grows quickly with both the rate and the number of periods.

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Demand and Supply in Product Markets
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