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Business Strategy and Planning

Decision trees, expected value, and their limitations

  • 3 things to know
  • Unit A2 1

Overview

What the square and circular nodes mean, how probabilities and values combine into an expected value and then a net gain, and what the method cannot weigh.

What you need to know

Answer each one before you reveal it.

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Key term

What is a decision tree?

Key term

What do square nodes represent in a decision tree?

Key term

What do circular nodes represent in a decision tree?

Questions from this subtopic

Each one with the model answer underneath.

  1. 1

    What is a decision tree?

    Model answer

    A diagram showing different decision options, possible outcomes, probabilities, and expected financial values to aid decision making.

  2. 2

    What do square nodes represent in a decision tree?

    Model answer

    Decision points where a choice must be made between alternatives.

  3. 3

    What do circular nodes represent in a decision tree?

    Model answer

    Chance nodes where different outcomes may occur with associated probabilities.

  4. 4

    What must the probabilities at each chance node in a decision tree sum to?

    Model answer

    1 (or 100%), as they represent all possible outcomes.

  5. 5

    What two steps are involved in calculating expected value at a chance node?

    Model answer

    Multiply each outcome by its probability, then sum all probability-weighted outcomes.

  6. 6

    Calculate the expected value when outcome 1 is worth £180,000 with a probability of 0.3, and outcome 2 is worth £465,000 with a probability of 0.7.

    Model answer

    Expected value = (180,000 × 0.3) + (465,000 × 0.7) = 54,000 + 325,500 = £379,500.

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