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Decision Tree Analysis

Drawing a decision tree and calculating expected value

  • 3 things to know
  • Unit A2 1

Overview

Final step in calculating expected value at a chance node and formula for calculating net gain in decision tree analysis.

What you need to know

Answer each one before you reveal it.

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Key term

What do the square and the circle stand for on a decision tree, and what are the first two steps in finding an expected value?

Key term

Find the net gain on an expected value of 330,000 less a cost of 170,000, and which way do you work at each stage?

Key term

What does a square symbol represent in a decision tree?

Questions from this subtopic

Each one with the model answer underneath.

  1. 1

    What does a square symbol represent in a decision tree?

    Model answer

    A decision node, which represents a point where a choice must be made between alternative courses of action.

  2. 2

    What does a circle symbol represent in a decision tree?

    Model answer

    A chance node, which represents a point where different outcomes may occur, each with an associated probability.

  3. 3

    What must the probabilities at each chance node sum to?

    Model answer

    1 (or 100%).

  4. 4

    When calculating expected value at a chance node, what must first be identified?

    Model answer

    Each possible outcome and its financial value.

  5. 5

    After identifying outcomes and their values, what is the next step in calculating expected value?

    Model answer

    Multiply each outcome value by its probability.

  6. 6

    What is the final step in calculating expected value at a chance node?

    Model answer

    Sum all the probability-weighted values.

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