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Managers, Leadership and Decision Making

Reading a decision tree

  • 2 things to know
  • Papers 1, 2 and 3

Overview

The chance and decision nodes, working backwards through the tree, and what the numbers mean.

What you need to know

Answer each one before you reveal it.

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Evaluation

How are expected value and net gain calculated in decision tree analysis?

Evaluation

How is a decision tree interpreted, and what is risk in decision making?

Questions from this subtopic

Each one with the model answer underneath.

  1. 1

    What do square nodes represent in a decision tree?

    Model answer

    Square nodes represent decision points where the manager chooses between options.

  2. 2

    What do circular nodes represent in a decision tree?

    Model answer

    Circular nodes represent chance nodes where different outcomes may occur with given probabilities.

  3. 3

    When interpreting a decision tree, what is the first step involving outcomes?

    Model answer

    Identify all possible outcomes and their values.

  4. 4

    How are the weighted values used at each chance node in a decision tree?

    Model answer

    The weighted values are summed at each chance node to calculate the expected value.

  5. 5

    How does a manager use net gains to reach a final decision?

    Model answer

    Compare the net gains of different options and select the option with the highest net gain as the optimal decision.

  6. 6

    Why are decision trees interpreted by working backwards from the outcomes?

    Model answer

    Working backwards allows expected values to be calculated at each chance node before costs are subtracted, enabling comparison of options at the decision point.

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