Social, economic and territorial outcomes of ethnic conflict

Overview

Main social impacts of a prolonged ethnic conflict, conflict economy and territorial division as an outcome of conflict.

What you need to know

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Questions from this subtopic

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1. 1

   Explain the main social impacts of a prolonged ethnic conflict.

   Model answer

   Deaths and life-changing injuries concentrated in particular communities and age groups; bereavement and long-term trauma, reflected in elevated rates of mental ill health, prescribing and suicide that can persist for decades; displacement of households by intimidation and by fear; disrupted schooling and lost qualifications; deterioration of health and other services in the worst-affected areas; loss of trust in policing and the courts; and the emigration of many of those with the qualifications to leave.

2. 2

   Why can the social effects of conflict outlast the violence by a generation or more?

   Model answer

   Because they are transmitted through families and neighbourhoods. Trauma in bereaved and injured populations affects parenting and household income, so children are affected without direct experience of the events. Interrupted education limits earnings across a working life. Segregation produced by intimidation persists because few households move back, so the next generation grows up with even less contact than the one before. Contested commemoration keeps the events politically live, and unresolved cases and inquiries continue for decades.

3. 3

   How does conflict change residential patterns within a divided city?

   Model answer

   It increases segregation, usually sharply and permanently. Households in mixed streets and at interfaces move out under intimidation or fear, so mixed areas empty and the remaining population sorts into more uniform blocks. Boundary streets acquire barriers, fencing and blocked roads. Land at the interface is left derelict because nobody will invest in contested ground. Because such movements are rarely reversed once violence ends, the map of the city after a conflict records the pattern of the violence.

4. 4

   Demonstrate knowledge and understanding of the economic impacts of ethnic conflict.

   Model answer

   Destruction of housing, commercial property, infrastructure and industrial capacity; loss of inward investment as firms avoid the risk; collapse of tourism; high insurance and security costs for the businesses that remain; diversion of public spending from services to security; unemployment and consequent dependence on public-sector employment and welfare; loss of skilled workers through emigration; and blighted city centres and derelict interface land. Reconstruction costs then fall due once the conflict ends.

5. 5

   Why does the loss of investment during a conflict have effects that persist after it ends?

   Model answer

   Because investment decisions are made on reputation and on long time horizons. Firms that relocated do not automatically return; the skilled workers who emigrated establish careers elsewhere; the years of lost capital spending leave infrastructure and premises obsolete; and the local economy may have become structurally dependent on public-sector jobs and security spending, both of which shrink after a settlement. Perceptions of risk take years to change, so recovery in investment typically lags well behind the reduction in violence.

6. 6

   What is meant by a conflict economy?

   Model answer

   It is the set of economic activities that arise from and depend on the conflict: smuggling across the disputed border or between controlled areas, protection rackets and extortion of businesses, control of fuel, cigarette or resource trades, and the funding networks that sustain armed groups. It matters because it creates people whose income depends on the conflict continuing, so they may act to obstruct a settlement, and because these networks frequently persist as organised crime after the political conflict is resolved.

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