OCR A-Level Business (H436) H436
Business Activity
Marketing
People
Operations
Finance
External Influences
Strategy, Risk and Managing Change
Marketing
Intuitive forecasting and forecasting for a new product
- 1 thing to know
- Component 01
Overview
Recall questions on intuitive sales forecasting and its advantages and drawbacks, reducing bias, forecasting for a new product, regional test launches, forecasts given as a range, and combining historical and intuitive methods.
What you need to know
Answer each one before you reveal it.
Questions from this subtopic
Each one with the model answer underneath.
- 1
What is intuitive sales forecasting?
Model answer
Intuitive sales forecasting estimates future sales from the judgement and experience of managers rather than from numerical data.
- 2
State two situations in which intuitive forecasting is necessary.
Model answer
It is necessary when a product is entirely new so no sales history exists, and when the market has changed so much that past data no longer applies.
- 3
Give two advantages of intuitive sales forecasting.
Model answer
It is quick and costs nothing to produce, and experienced managers can allow for factors that no set of data captures.
- 4
Give two drawbacks of intuitive sales forecasting.
Model answer
It is subjective and difficult for anyone to challenge, and personal optimism or caution biases the figure produced.
- 5
How can a business reduce the bias in an intuitive forecast?
Model answer
It can gather independent estimates from several managers and sales staff and compare them, rather than relying on one person's judgement.
- 6
Why is forecasting sales of a completely new product so difficult?
Model answer
There is no history for the product, so the business must estimate both how many customers will try it and how many of those will buy it again.
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