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Marketing

Intuitive forecasting and forecasting for a new product

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Overview

Recall questions on intuitive sales forecasting and its advantages and drawbacks, reducing bias, forecasting for a new product, regional test launches, forecasts given as a range, and combining historical and intuitive methods.

What you need to know

Answer each one before you reveal it.

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Key term

What is intuitive sales forecasting?

Questions from this subtopic

Each one with the model answer underneath.

  1. 1

    What is intuitive sales forecasting?

    Model answer

    Intuitive sales forecasting estimates future sales from the judgement and experience of managers rather than from numerical data.

  2. 2

    State two situations in which intuitive forecasting is necessary.

    Model answer

    It is necessary when a product is entirely new so no sales history exists, and when the market has changed so much that past data no longer applies.

  3. 3

    Give two advantages of intuitive sales forecasting.

    Model answer

    It is quick and costs nothing to produce, and experienced managers can allow for factors that no set of data captures.

  4. 4

    Give two drawbacks of intuitive sales forecasting.

    Model answer

    It is subjective and difficult for anyone to challenge, and personal optimism or caution biases the figure produced.

  5. 5

    How can a business reduce the bias in an intuitive forecast?

    Model answer

    It can gather independent estimates from several managers and sales staff and compare them, rather than relying on one person's judgement.

  6. 6

    Why is forecasting sales of a completely new product so difficult?

    Model answer

    There is no history for the product, so the business must estimate both how many customers will try it and how many of those will buy it again.

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