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Business Objectives and Strategy

Forecasting and its limits

  • 1 thing to know
  • Components 01, 02 and 03

Overview

Recall questions on what forecasting is and the decisions it informs, its advantages and disadvantages, why forecasts lose reliability over time and in fast-changing markets, presenting ranges, improving accuracy, the consequences of over-optimistic and over-cautious forecasts, and responding to falling demand.

What you need to know

Answer each one before you reveal it.

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Key term

What is forecasting?

Questions from this subtopic

Each one with the model answer underneath.

  1. 1

    What is forecasting?

    Model answer

    Forecasting is predicting future values of a variable such as sales, costs or cash, using past data or informed judgement.

  2. 2

    Why do businesses forecast?

    Model answer

    So that production, staffing, stock and finance can be arranged in advance for the level of activity that is expected.

  3. 3

    Give three specific decisions that a sales forecast informs.

    Model answer

    How much to produce, how many staff to employ, and how much stock and cash the business needs to hold.

  4. 4

    Give two advantages of forecasting to a business.

    Model answer

    It reduces the chance of being caught with too much or too little capacity, and it gives lenders and investors a reasoned basis for backing the business.

  5. 5

    Give two disadvantages of relying on forecasts.

    Model answer

    They can create false confidence in a single figure, and forecasting takes time and expertise that a small business may not have.

  6. 6

    Why does a forecast become less reliable the further ahead it looks?

    Model answer

    Small errors in the assumptions compound over time, and the chance that market conditions change fundamentally rises with the length of the horizon.

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Introduction to Business
Business Objectives and Strategy
External Influences
Accounting and Finance

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Revenue the cost of sales.
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AHow much finance the business needs to raise.
BHow much personal risk the owner is willing to carry.
CHow much control they want to keep.

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Customer means the person who buys a product and pays for it.
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