OCR A-Level Business (H431) H431
Introduction to Business
Business Objectives and Strategy
External Influences
Accounting and Finance
Human Resources
Marketing
Operations Management
Business Objectives and Strategy
Forecasting and its limits
- 1 thing to know
- Components 01, 02 and 03
Overview
Recall questions on what forecasting is and the decisions it informs, its advantages and disadvantages, why forecasts lose reliability over time and in fast-changing markets, presenting ranges, improving accuracy, the consequences of over-optimistic and over-cautious forecasts, and responding to falling demand.
What you need to know
Answer each one before you reveal it.
Questions from this subtopic
Each one with the model answer underneath.
- 1
What is forecasting?
Model answer
Forecasting is predicting future values of a variable such as sales, costs or cash, using past data or informed judgement.
- 2
Why do businesses forecast?
Model answer
So that production, staffing, stock and finance can be arranged in advance for the level of activity that is expected.
- 3
Give three specific decisions that a sales forecast informs.
Model answer
How much to produce, how many staff to employ, and how much stock and cash the business needs to hold.
- 4
Give two advantages of forecasting to a business.
Model answer
It reduces the chance of being caught with too much or too little capacity, and it gives lenders and investors a reasoned basis for backing the business.
- 5
Give two disadvantages of relying on forecasts.
Model answer
They can create false confidence in a single figure, and forecasting takes time and expertise that a small business may not have.
- 6
Why does a forecast become less reliable the further ahead it looks?
Model answer
Small errors in the assumptions compound over time, and the chance that market conditions change fundamentally rises with the length of the horizon.
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