What is meant by uncertainty in business?

Uncertainty exists where the future outcomes of a situation cannot be predicted and no reliable probability can be attached to them.

How does uncertainty differ from risk?

Risk can be measured and priced because probabilities can be estimated, whereas uncertainty cannot, so it has to be managed through flexibility and judgement rather than calculation.

Name three internal causes of uncertainty in a business.

The unexpected departure of a key manager, industrial action by the workforce, and the outcome of a major internal project such as a new IT system.

Name four external causes of uncertainty.

Changes in government policy or law, movements in exchange and interest rates, unannounced actions by competitors, and extreme weather or other natural events.

How does exchange rate volatility create uncertainty for an exporter?

Revenue in pounds depends on a rate that can move between the order and the payment, so the profit on a sale is not known at the point the price is agreed.

Why does technological change create uncertainty rather than measurable risk?

Nobody can say which innovation will be adopted or when, so there is no distribution of past outcomes from which a probability could be estimated.

OCR A-Level Business (H431) H431

Introduction to Business

Topic overview Entrepreneurs, enterprise and the value they create Land, labour, capital and enterprise Sectors of industry, forms of ownership and the reach of a market Sole traders, partnerships, companies and limited liability Choosing a legal structure and what it means for stakeholders Franchising and co-operatives The functions of a business and how they depend on each other Measuring the size of a business, and what limits its growth Joint ventures and strategic alliances

Business Objectives and Strategy

Topic overview Aims, objectives and the hierarchy that links them Setting SMART objectives Communicating and revising business objectives Stakeholders and their objectives Stakeholder conflict and its management Stakeholder power and influence Mission statements and business purpose Corporate social responsibility and the profit trade-off Building and judging a CSR profile Strategy, tactics and implementation The business plan and the Plan-Do-Review cycle Risk and reward Quantifiable and unquantifiable risk Uncertainty and its causes Opportunity cost in business decisions Contingency planning and crisis management Porter's Five Forces Porter's generic strategies and competitive advantage The purpose of performance measurement Financial measures of business performance Ratio analysis: profitability, liquidity and efficiency Non-financial measures of business performance Forecasting and its limits Qualitative forecasting methods Forecasting sales, costs, profit and cash flow Time series analysis and moving averages Correlation, extrapolation and index numbers The business decision-making process Decision trees and expected values Ansoff's matrix Conflicting results from decision-making tools Causes, types and barriers to change Change management models: Lewin, Kotter and 7-S Leading change and using external consultants

External Influences

Topic overview The market, its size, growth and share Market structures and a firm's decision-making power Demand, supply and their determinants Equilibrium, shortages and surpluses Market forces and the dynamic market Physical and non-physical markets Competition, and barriers to entry and exit Market dominance and how it is regulated Globalisation and the forces driving it Multinationals, global strategy and global brands International trade, its barriers and its practicalities Exchange rates and currency conversion Free trade, trading blocs and the European Union Emerging markets and the changing global environment Political factors and political stability The business cycle and key economic indicators Taxation, government spending and subsidies Monetary, fiscal and supply-side policy Social factors and changing consumer lifestyles Technology in business and technological change The digital revolution and the information age Business ethics and ethical trading Managing conflicts between ethical and other objectives Legislation, compliance and the cost of breaking it Environmental issues and environmental policy Sustainability in practice Reading the external environment and the cost of ignoring it

Accounting and Finance

Human Resources

Topic overview Human resource objectives Chain of command, span of control and delegation Tall, flat, matrix and divisional structures Organisational culture and what shapes it Formal and informal communication and group norms Verbal, non-verbal and electronic communication The communication model and barriers to communication Workforce planning Flexible working practices Recruitment and the choice between internal and external hiring Selection methods: interviews, tests and references Training methods and training needs analysis Appraisal: 360°, peer and self-assessment Measuring workforce performance: turnover, absenteeism and productivity Redundancy and fair dismissal Unfair dismissal, grievance procedures and employment tribunals The functions of management Leadership theories and styles Maslow, Herzberg and the theories of motivation Monetary and non-monetary motivation in practice Employee relations and employment legislation Trade unions and employee participation External influences on human resources The human resources strategy

Marketing

Topic overview Marketing objectives and why a business sets them Marketing resources and SWOT analysis Primary market research and trial marketing Secondary market research and desk sources Sampling methods and sample reliability Normal distribution and standard deviation Market share and market growth Using market analysis to make decisions Consumer buying behaviour and the marketing models Niche marketing and mass marketing Customer orientation, product orientation and customer service Market segmentation Customers, consumers and business-to-business marketing The product life cycle and its stages Extension strategies The marketing mix and the marketing strategy Product, USP, branding and differentiation The Boston matrix, Ansoff's matrix and portfolio analysis Pricing strategies Price and income elasticity of demand Cross elasticity and advertising elasticity of demand Place and channels of distribution Promotion above the line, below the line and digital Service marketing and the extended marketing mix External influences on marketing

Operations Management

Topic overview Operations objectives and operations strategy Added value and how it is measured Innovation and research and development Job, batch, flow and cell production Specialisation and the division of labour Service provision and customer service Project management and Gantt charts Critical path analysis and network diagrams PERT and the limits of project planning Productivity and how to raise it Economies and diseconomies of scale Capacity utilisation and capacity management Stock control charts and reorder levels Reordering systems and the cost of holding stock Lean production, just in time and kanban Technology in operations Quality control, quality assurance and TQM External quality standards and benchmarking Choosing a location for a business Logistics and supply chain management Outsourcing, offshoring and re-shoring External influences on operations

Business Objectives and Strategy

Uncertainty and its causes

1 thing to know
Components 01, 02 and 03

Overview

Recall questions on uncertainty and how it differs from risk, its internal and external causes including exchange rates and technology, and its effects on objectives, planning, forecasts, investment, finance and employees, together with scenario planning and building flexibility.

What you need to know

Answer each one before you reveal it.

Your recallNot started

Key term

How does uncertainty reduce the value of a forecast?

Questions from this subtopic

Each one with the model answer underneath.

1
What is meant by uncertainty in business?
Model answer
Uncertainty exists where the future outcomes of a situation cannot be predicted and no reliable probability can be attached to them.
2
How does uncertainty differ from risk?
Model answer
Risk can be measured and priced because probabilities can be estimated, whereas uncertainty cannot, so it has to be managed through flexibility and judgement rather than calculation.
3
Name three internal causes of uncertainty in a business.
Model answer
The unexpected departure of a key manager, industrial action by the workforce, and the outcome of a major internal project such as a new IT system.
4
Name four external causes of uncertainty.
Model answer
Changes in government policy or law, movements in exchange and interest rates, unannounced actions by competitors, and extreme weather or other natural events.
5
How does exchange rate volatility create uncertainty for an exporter?
Model answer
Revenue in pounds depends on a rate that can move between the order and the payment, so the profit on a sale is not known at the point the price is agreed.
6
Why does technological change create uncertainty rather than measurable risk?
Model answer
Nobody can say which innovation will be adopted or when, so there is no distribution of past outcomes from which a probability could be estimated.

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Introduction to Business

Business Objectives and Strategy

External Influences

Accounting and Finance

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Revenue the cost of sales.

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