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Geographical Skills

Predicting from data, and spotting weak statistical presentation

  • 3 things to know
  • Component 03

Overview

Interpolation and extrapolation, predicting from a steady rate of growth, the assumption behind every trend, and why axes without zero or units, percentages without totals, crowded pie charts and chosen years mislead.

What you need to know

Answer each one before you reveal it.

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Key term

What is extrapolation?

Key term

What is wrong with a graph whose axes carry no units?

Key term

Why is a percentage quoted without the total it came from weak evidence?

Questions from this subtopic

Each one with the model answer underneath.

  1. 1

    What is interpolation?

    Model answer

    Estimating a value that lies inside the range of the data already collected.

  2. 2

    What is extrapolation?

    Model answer

    Extending a trend beyond the range of the data in order to estimate a value that was never measured.

  3. 3

    Why is extrapolation less reliable than interpolation?

    Model answer

    It assumes the trend carries on unchanged outside the measured range, which it may well not do.

  4. 4

    A settlement has been growing steadily by 2000 people a year and stood at 50 000 people one year. What would you predict for five years later?

    Model answer

    About 60 000 people, if the same rate of growth continues.

  5. 5

    What assumption does every prediction taken from a trend rest on?

    Model answer

    That the conditions producing the trend will stay the same in the future.

  6. 6

    Why is a vertical axis that does not begin at zero misleading?

    Model answer

    It cuts off the bottom of the bars or line, so small differences look far larger than they really are.

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