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Climate Change

Climate models, the carbon cycle and feedback

  • 2 things to know
  • Component 03

Overview

Recall questions on general circulation models and how they are tested, ensembles, clouds and ice sheets as uncertainties, downscaling, the carbon cycle in models, the main carbon stores and sinks, ocean acidification, positive feedbacks such as ice-albedo and permafrost thaw, negative feedbacks including CO₂ fertilisation, and tipping points.

What you need to know

Answer each one before you reveal it.

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Key term

Why do modellers run large ensembles of simulations rather than a single run?

Process

Give two processes that remain a major source of uncertainty in climate models.

Questions from this subtopic

Each one with the model answer underneath.

  1. 1

    What is a general circulation model?

    Model answer

    It is a computer model that divides the atmosphere and ocean into a three-dimensional grid of cells and solves the physical equations governing energy, momentum and moisture in each cell through time.

  2. 2

    How are climate models tested before being used to project the future?

    Model answer

    They are run over the past century to see whether they reproduce the observed record of temperature and circulation, a process known as hindcasting.

  3. 3

    Why do modellers run large ensembles of simulations rather than a single run?

    Model answer

    Small differences in starting conditions and in model design lead to different outcomes, so a spread of runs shows the realistic range of futures instead of a single false certainty.

  4. 4

    Give two processes that remain a major source of uncertainty in climate models.

    Model answer

    The behaviour of clouds and the dynamics of the great ice sheets remain the two largest sources of uncertainty.

  5. 5

    Why are clouds so difficult to represent in a climate model?

    Model answer

    They form on scales far smaller than a model grid cell, and they can either cool the surface by reflecting sunlight or warm it by trapping longwave radiation, depending on their height and thickness.

  6. 6

    What is downscaling?

    Model answer

    It is the process of deriving detailed regional or local projections from the coarse output of a global model.

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AThe lower quartile is the 2nd value, 11 cm.
BThe upper quartile is the 6th value, 16 cm.
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The sunspot cycle lasts about 11 years.
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