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Climate Change

Future emission scenarios and projected temperature and sea level rise

  • 2 things to know
  • Component 03

Overview

Recall questions on emission scenarios and why they give projections, low and high emission pathways and warming by 2100, similar warming to 2040, committed warming, projected sea level rise and why it continues for centuries, carbon budgets, negative emissions, and the uncertainty of regional and sea level projections.

What you need to know

Answer each one before you reveal it.

Your recallNot started
Key term

Explain the difference between a low-emission and a high-emission pathway.

Key term

Roughly how much warming is projected by 2100 under a very low emission pathway?

Questions from this subtopic

Each one with the model answer underneath.

  1. 1

    What is an emission scenario?

    Model answer

    It is a plausible storyline of future population, economic growth, technology and policy, converted into the greenhouse gas emissions that would result from it.

  2. 2

    Why are model outputs described as projections rather than predictions?

    Model answer

    Each one shows what would happen if a particular set of human choices were made, so which comes true depends on decisions that have not yet been taken.

  3. 3

    Explain the difference between a low-emission and a high-emission pathway.

    Model answer

    A low-emission pathway assumes rapid decarbonisation with emissions falling within a decade or two, while a high-emission pathway assumes continued expansion of fossil fuel use with little effective policy.

  4. 4

    Roughly how much warming is projected by 2100 under a very low emission pathway?

    Model answer

    Around 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, with the rise essentially halted in the second half of the century.

  5. 5

    Roughly how much warming is projected by 2100 under a very high emission pathway?

    Model answer

    Around 4 °C or more above pre-industrial levels, and still climbing at the end of the century.

  6. 6

    Why do all the scenarios give similar warming out to about 2040?

    Model answer

    Warming over the next two decades is largely determined by gases already emitted and by the thermal inertia of the ocean, so policy choices only separate the pathways after that.

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