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Data and Market Analysis

Moving averages and time-series analysis

  • 3 things to know
  • Component 2

Overview

Time-series analysis, four components of a time series and trend in a time series.

What you need to know

Answer each one before you reveal it.

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Key term

What is time-series analysis?

Key term

Name the four components of a time series.

Key term

What information can a manager interpret from a completed time-series analysis?

Questions from this subtopic

Each one with the model answer underneath.

  1. 1

    What is time-series analysis?

    Model answer

    Time-series analysis studies a run of figures recorded at regular intervals over time. The purpose is to separate the underlying trend from short-term movements.

  2. 2

    Name the four components of a time series.

    Model answer

    A time series contains a trend, seasonal variations and cyclical variations. Random or erratic fluctuations make up the fourth component.

  3. 3

    What information can a manager interpret from a completed time-series analysis?

    Model answer

    A time-series analysis shows the trend, the size of the seasonal swing and any erratic period. A manager reads the direction of the business and the scale of its seasonality.

  4. 4

    What is the trend in a time series?

    Model answer

    The trend is the underlying long-term direction of the figures once short-term movement is removed. A trend can be rising, falling or flat.

  5. 5

    Why is a moving average calculated?

    Model answer

    A moving average smooths out short-term peaks and troughs in the raw data. The smoothed series shows the underlying trend much more clearly.

  6. 6

    How is a three-point moving average calculated?

    Model answer

    Three consecutive figures are added together and the total is divided by three. The result belongs to the middle period of the three.

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