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Aggregate Supply and the Phillips Curve

Expectations, the long run Phillips curve and the NAIRU

  • 3 things to know
  • All three components

Overview

Shape and position of the long run Phillips curve, role of inflationary expectations in the expectations-augmented model and adaptive expectations.

What you need to know

Answer each one before you reveal it.

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Key term

What is the NAIRU, and how does it relate to the long run Phillips curve?

Key term

Why do Neo-Classical economists argue that the short run Phillips curve is not stable?

Numbers

Which economists developed the expectations-augmented Phillips curve?

Questions from this subtopic

Each one with the model answer underneath.

  1. 1

    Why do Neo-Classical economists argue that the short run Phillips curve is not stable?

    Model answer

    Neo-Classical economists argue that the curve's position depends on the inflation people expect. Each time expectations rise, the short run Phillips curve shifts upwards.

  2. 2

    Which economists developed the expectations-augmented Phillips curve?

    Model answer

    Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps developed the expectations-augmented Phillips curve in the late 1960s. Friedman set out the argument in a 1968 article on the role of monetary policy.

  3. 3

    What is the NAIRU?

    Model answer

    The NAIRU is the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. Inflation stays constant at that rate of unemployment and accelerates if unemployment is held below it.

  4. 4

    Describe the shape and position of the long run Phillips curve.

    Model answer

    The long run Phillips curve is vertical at the natural rate of unemployment. Any rate of inflation is compatible with that single rate of unemployment in the long run.

  5. 5

    What happens if a government attempts to hold unemployment below the NAIRU?

    Model answer

    Attempts to hold unemployment below the NAIRU produce accelerating inflation. Workers repeatedly revise their expectations upwards and demand ever larger wage rises.

  6. 6

    Explain the role of inflationary expectations in the expectations-augmented model.

    Model answer

    Workers bargain for money wages that protect the real wage they expect. Higher expected inflation therefore raises money wage claims and shifts the short run Phillips curve upwards.

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