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Types of Software System

Computers in weather forecasting

  • 3 things to know
  • AS Unit 1

Overview

How the atmosphere is represented inside a forecasting model, how a numerical forecast is produced from the current observations and effect of reducing the grid spacing of a model.

What you need to know

Answer each one before you reveal it.

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Key term

Why is a supercomputer needed for weather forecasting?

Key term

Name four sources of the observations a weather model is fed with.

Key term

Describe how the atmosphere is represented inside a forecasting model.

Questions from this subtopic

Each one with the model answer underneath.

  1. 1

    Name four sources of the observations a weather model is fed with.

    Model answer

    Ground weather stations, instrument-carrying balloons, satellites, and radar, with further readings from ocean buoys, ships and aircraft.

  2. 2

    Describe how the atmosphere is represented inside a forecasting model.

    Model answer

    The atmosphere is divided into a three-dimensional grid of cells, each holding values such as pressure, temperature, humidity and wind for the air in that volume.

  3. 3

    Explain how a numerical forecast is produced from the current observations.

    Model answer

    The observations set the starting values in every grid cell, then equations describing how air behaves are applied repeatedly in small time steps to calculate the state of each cell a little further into the future.

  4. 4

    Why is a supercomputer needed for weather forecasting?

    Model answer

    Millions of grid cells must each be recalculated for every one of many time steps, and the whole forecast has to be finished in a fraction of the time it describes, so an enormous number of calculations must be done very quickly.

  5. 5

    What is the effect of reducing the grid spacing of a model?

    Model answer

    Smaller cells capture local features such as showers and hills more faithfully, giving a more detailed forecast, but the number of calculations rises steeply so far more processing power is needed.

  6. 6

    Explain why a forecast is only as good as the observations it starts from.

    Model answer

    The model calculates forward from the starting values, so any gap or error in those values is carried into every later step and grows as the calculation proceeds.

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