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Managing Projects

Estimating effort, duration and cost

  • 3 things to know
  • A2 Unit 1

Overview

Estimating by analogy, bottom-up estimating and three-point estimating formula that weights the most likely value.

What you need to know

Answer each one before you reveal it.

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Key term

Distinguish the effort an activity requires from its duration.

Key term

An activity needs 24 person-days of effort and three developers work on it full time. State its duration and show the working.

Key term

Why does dividing effort by the number of people often understate the duration?

Questions from this subtopic

Each one with the model answer underneath.

  1. 1

    Distinguish the effort an activity requires from its duration.

    Model answer

    Effort is the quantity of work measured in person-days, while duration is the number of working days the activity occupies on the calendar, and the two differ whenever more or fewer than one person is assigned.

  2. 2

    An activity needs 24 person-days of effort and three developers work on it full time. State its duration and show the working.

    Model answer

    The duration is 24 ÷ 3 = 8 working days, and multiplying back gives 8 × 3 = 24 person-days, which matches the effort required.

  3. 3

    Why does dividing effort by the number of people often understate the duration?

    Model answer

    Dividing effort by headcount understates duration because the work may not split cleanly, the people must coordinate with each other, and some parts must be done in sequence however many developers are available.

  4. 4

    Describe estimating by analogy.

    Model answer

    Estimating by analogy takes a completed piece of work of similar size and type and adjusts its recorded actual effort for the differences. Analogy is the most reliable method available to any organisation that keeps records of past projects.

  5. 5

    What is bottom-up estimating, and what is its main weakness?

    Model answer

    Bottom-up estimating adds together an estimate for every work package in the breakdown, and its main weakness is that anything omitted from the breakdown is omitted from the total, so integration, meetings and rework are routinely left out.

  6. 6

    State the three-point estimating formula that weights the most likely value.

    Model answer

    The expected duration is calculated as the optimistic estimate plus four times the most likely estimate plus the pessimistic estimate, all divided by six.

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